Spread: Browns (-3.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (67%) · Saints at 99¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Browns2¢Saints98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 98.5¢

+91% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Browns2%

Saints99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints8 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares11,128

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Browns4 traders

Total Value$833.12

Total Shares4,654

Combined PnL-$966.34

Saints — 67%Browns — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Saintsavg 66.2¢	$6.3K	$4.0K	-$750.09	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1	Saintsavg 37.2¢	$1.2K	$2.7K	+$1.5K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
JU justaluckydude	Saintsavg 23.4¢	$510.7	$1.6K	+$1.1K	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Saintsavg 59.4¢	$566.88	$940.18	+$373.3	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HO HomeRunHazard	Saintsavg 73¢	$684.25	$705.37	+$21.12	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Brownsavg 37.7¢	$821.7	$613.28	-$208.42	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 58.6¢	$245.99	$346.28	+$100.3
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 37.7¢	$575.71	$267	-$308.71
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Brownsavg 42.6¢	$1.5K	$601.13	-$905.83	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
38 38791873984189CTR	Brownsavg 25.5¢	$315.23	$193.95	-$43.28	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saintsavg 77.7¢	$91.97	$77.81	+$7.95	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Brownsavg 27¢	$52.11	$35.71	-$16.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Saintsavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.93	+$0.22	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
AN Anon455<$100	Saintsavg 75¢	$3.9	$4.26	+$0.36	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Brownsavg 21¢	$3.15	$2.33	-$0.82	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Saints

Invested

$6,254.1

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$750.09

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1

Saints

Invested

$1,200.16

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

justaluckydude

Saints

Invested

$510.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Saints

Invested

$566.88

Value

$940.18

PnL

+$373.3

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

HomeRunHazard

Saints

Invested

$684.25

Value

$705.37

PnL

+$21.12

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$821.7

Value

$613.28

PnL

-$208.42

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Saints$245.9958.6¢+$100.3

Browns$575.7137.7¢-$308.71

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Browns

Invested

$1,506.96

Value

$601.13

PnL

-$905.83

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

38791873984189CTR

Browns

Invested

$315.23

Value

$193.95

PnL

-$43.28

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9X<$100

Saints

Invested

$91.97

Value

$77.81

PnL

+$7.95

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$52.11

Value

$35.71

PnL

-$16.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Saints

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Anon455<$100

Saints

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.36

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.82

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.