Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (86%) · Colts at 92¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys9¢Colts91¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 86%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$168.35

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 91.5¢

+52% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys9%

Colts92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts12 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares13,559

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$754.64

Total Shares4,896

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Colts — 86%Cowboys — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Coltsavg 61.9¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$657.03	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189	Coltsavg 63¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	+$191.84	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Coltsavg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$598.11	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PU purplegatto	Coltsavg 65¢	$825.44	$897.1	+$71.66	49% 6674-6872 (13546)
nigiri99	Coltsavg 63¢	$768.6	$835.7	+$67.1	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
RN1CTR	Cowboysavg 49.1¢	$2.3K	$633.4	$-1.7K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
65 6512395314597884	Coltsavg 62.7¢	$392.11	$537.04	+$144.93	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BO BoomLaLa	Coltsavg 63¢	$692	$474.02	+$38.06	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Coltsavg 50¢	$248.32	$273.32	+$25	56% 195-151 (346)
VeryLucky888	Coltsavg 62¢	$159.12	$160.29	+$1.17	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Cowboysavg 47¢	$103.99	$121.24	+$17.25	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coltsavg 48.7¢	$69.21	$56.25	+$18.71	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Coltsavg 51¢	$21.68	$29.97	+$8.29	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
GH ghorrock<$100	Coltsavg 53¢	$9.47	$8.92	-$0.56	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

Anon455

Colts

Invested

$3,045.73

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$657.03

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189

Colts

Invested

$3,500

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$191.84

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Colts

Invested

$1,381.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$598.11

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

purplegatto

Colts

Invested

$825.44

Value

$897.1

PnL

+$71.66

Record

49%

6674-6872 (13546)

nigiri99

Colts

Invested

$768.6

Value

$835.7

PnL

+$67.1

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

RN1CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$2,303.66

Value

$633.4

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

6512395314597884

Colts

Invested

$392.11

Value

$537.04

PnL

+$144.93

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

BoomLaLa

Colts

Invested

$692

Value

$474.02

PnL

+$38.06

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Colts

Invested

$248.32

Value

$273.32

PnL

+$25

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

VeryLucky888

Colts

Invested

$159.12

Value

$160.29

PnL

+$1.17

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

justaluckydudeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$103.99

Value

$121.24

PnL

+$17.25

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9X<$100

Colts

Invested

$69.21

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$18.71

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Colts

Invested

$21.68

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$8.29

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

ghorrock<$100

Colts

Invested

$9.47

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.