Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Lions (75%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lions vs. Dolphins

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (83%) · Dolphins at 26¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 8

Lions75¢Dolphins25¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$126.61

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 25.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions75%

Dolphins26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins10 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares50,205

Combined PnL+$107.64

Lions2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,876

Combined PnL+$18.97

Dolphins — 83%Lions — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$0	46% 5254-6101 (11355)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$62.94	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
DA darkumbreon88	Lionsavg 74¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$19.28	64% 2011-1118 (3129)
VeryLucky888CTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$40.83	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$529.9	$529.9	+$8.18	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$347.61	$347.61	+$6.95
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 74¢	$182.28	$182.28	+$1.23
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lionsavg 74¢	$293.86	$293.86	+$1.14	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 74¢	$168.86	$168.86	+$1.14
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$125	$125	+$0
FL FlaznorpCTR	Dolphinsavg 26.6¢	$114.81	$158.86	+$0.89	51% 26319-24948 (51267)
DV dv-pmCTR	Dolphinsavg 26¢	$140.92	$135.5	-$2.71	48% 3352-3568 (6920)
GC GC-PCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$125	$125	+$2.5	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 24.9¢	$561.06	$30.31	+$2.14	48% 61878-66736 (128614)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$28	$28	+$0.56	48% 7423-7958 (15381)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$25.17	$25.17	+$0.5	50% 26091-25752 (51843)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lionsavg 76¢	$15.83	$15.42	-$0.31	53% 12542-11256 (23798)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$3.75	$11.34	-$0.01	54% 10092-8474 (18566)

hi774cCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$6,860.25

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5254-6101 (11355)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$3,147

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$62.94

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

darkumbreon88

Lions

Invested

$2,853.12

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$19.28

Record

64%

2011-1118 (3129)

VeryLucky888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,041.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$40.83

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$529.9

Value

$529.9

PnL

+$8.18

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

Both legs:

Dolphins$347.6125¢+$6.95

Lions$182.2874¢+$1.23

NM-PARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$293.86

Value

$293.86

PnL

+$1.14

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

Both legs:

Lions$168.8674¢+$1.14

Dolphins$12525¢+$0

FlaznorpCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$114.81

Value

$158.86

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

26319-24948 (51267)

dv-pmCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$140.92

Value

$135.5

PnL

-$2.71

Record

48%

3352-3568 (6920)

GC-PCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$125

Value

$125

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$561.06

Value

$30.31

PnL

+$2.14

Record

48%

61878-66736 (128614)

OddstormCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$28

Value

$28

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

7423-7958 (15381)

sentrioCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$25.17

Value

$25.17

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lions

Invested

$15.83

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

12542-11256 (23798)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3.75

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

10092-8474 (18566)

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.