Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (89%) · Colts at 73¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 1

Jaguars28¢Colts72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 89%

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

-$442.28

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars28%

Colts73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts8 traders

Total Value$33.8K

Total Shares46,519

Combined PnL-$451.03

Jaguars1 trader

Total Value$66.25

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$8.75

Colts — 89%Jaguars — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Coltsavg 73.2¢	$11.0K	$10.9K	-$105	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 74.1¢	$9.5K	$9.3K	-$201.77	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Coltsavg 73¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	-$50	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
HI hi774c	Coltsavg 74¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$94.46	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
UP UpTheBlues	Coltsavg 73¢	$869.43	$863.48	-$5.95	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Coltsavg 73¢	$730	$730	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Coltsavg 73¢	$146	$146	+$1	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 24¢	$60	$66.25	+$8.75	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Coltsavg 73.3¢	$48.36	$48.18	+$0.15	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

VeryLucky888

Colts

Invested

$10,980

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$105

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$9,456.39

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$201.77

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Colts

Invested

$7,300

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

hi774c

Colts

Invested

$4,659.99

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$94.46

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

UpTheBlues

Colts

Invested

$869.43

Value

$863.48

PnL

-$5.95

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Colts

Invested

$730

Value

$730

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Colts

Invested

$146

Value

$146

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$60

Value

$66.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Colts

Invested

$48.36

Value

$48.18

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.