Rams vs. Commanders

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (58%) · Rams at 67¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 8

Rams67¢Commanders33¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 58%

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$8.85

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 66.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams67%

Commanders34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams7 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares19,778

Combined PnL-$439.26

Commanders5 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares20,349

Combined PnL+$448.12

Rams — 58%Commanders — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpRams 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRams 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRams 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Ramsavg 69¢	$11.6K	$11.1K	-$420.19	64% 2027-1130 (3157)
JU justwinsCTR	Commandersavg 31¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$403.88	49% 175-180 (355)
TH thebug44	Ramsavg 67.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$10	35% 47-87 (134)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Commandersavg 33¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$14.98	53% 661-580 (1241)
VeryLucky888	Ramsavg 66.4¢	$237.97	$236.54	-$1.42	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Commandersavg 31.6¢	$208.95	$217.92	+$16.51	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
38 38791873984189	Ramsavg 69¢	$173.96	$156.13	-$5.62	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
NM NM-P	Ramsavg 66¢	$147.61	$148.73	+$1.12	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
DV dv-pmCTR	Commandersavg 31¢	$135.47	$146.4	+$10.93	48% 3363-3589 (6952)
HE Herdonia	Ramsavg 68.5¢	$104.27	$100.4	-$3.11	51% 3836-3755 (7591)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Commandersavg 30¢	$15.56	$17.11	+$1.81	50% 38141-37389 (75530)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Ramsavg 68.7¢	$1.85	$1.78	-$0.04	48% 7436-7974 (15410)

darkumbreon88

Rams

Invested

$11,597.27

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$420.19

Record

64%

2027-1130 (3157)

justwinsCTR

Commanders

Invested

$5,007.93

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$403.88

Record

49%

175-180 (355)

thebug44

Rams

Invested

$1,353.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

35%

47-87 (134)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Commanders

Invested

$1,005.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$14.98

Record

53%

661-580 (1241)

VeryLucky888

Rams

Invested

$237.97

Value

$236.54

PnL

-$1.42

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

FlaznorpCTR

Commanders

Invested

$208.95

Value

$217.92

PnL

+$16.51

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

38791873984189

Rams

Invested

$173.96

Value

$156.13

PnL

-$5.62

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

NM-P

Rams

Invested

$147.61

Value

$148.73

PnL

+$1.12

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

dv-pmCTR

Commanders

Invested

$135.47

Value

$146.4

PnL

+$10.93

Record

48%

3363-3589 (6952)

Herdonia

Rams

Invested

$104.27

Value

$100.4

PnL

-$3.11

Record

51%

3836-3755 (7591)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$15.56

Value

$17.11

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

38141-37389 (75530)

Oddstorm<$100

Rams

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

7436-7974 (15410)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpRams 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRams 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRams 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.