Spread: Giants (-6.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (50%) · Eagles at 74¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Giants27¢Eagles73¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 50%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$306.23

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 73.5¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants27%

Eagles74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares12,085

Combined PnL+$318.82

Giants6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,219

Combined PnL-$625.05

Eagles — 50%Giants — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Eaglesavg 62¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$41.1	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
ME metski29	Eaglesavg 53.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.74	45% 374-453 (827)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 62.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	+$100.34	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 37¢	$2.9K	$1.1K	-$14.46	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Eaglesavg 54.5¢	$598.73	$780.65	+$181.92	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
AN Anon455CTR	Giantsavg 47¢	$1.0K	$711.24	-$324.88	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
BO BoomLaLa	Eaglesavg 61¢	$250	$158.75	+$6.25	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
RN1CTR	Giantsavg 46¢	$253.83	$137.95	-$115.88	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Giantsavg 47¢	$235	$125	-$110	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 48¢	$99.96	$55.19	-$44.77	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 57.3¢	$50.88	$25.09	+$2.96	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Giantsavg 46.6¢	$31.04	$15.98	-$15.06	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

SunlineTicker

Eagles

Invested

$3,652.06

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$41.1

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

metski29

Eagles

Invested

$1,673.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.74

Record

45%

374-453 (827)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$1,753.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$100.34

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$2,892

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.46

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Eagles

Invested

$598.73

Value

$780.65

PnL

+$181.92

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Anon455CTR

Giants

Invested

$1,036.12

Value

$711.24

PnL

-$324.88

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

BoomLaLa

Eagles

Invested

$250

Value

$158.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

RN1CTR

Giants

Invested

$253.83

Value

$137.95

PnL

-$115.88

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Giants

Invested

$235

Value

$125

PnL

-$110

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$99.96

Value

$55.19

PnL

-$44.77

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$50.88

Value

$25.09

PnL

+$2.96

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$31.04

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$15.06

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.