Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Commanders (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Commanders (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (56%) · Eagles at 4.5¢ · $854 held · ended Nov 2

Commanders96¢Eagles4¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 56%

Total Value

$854.21

Combined PnL

-$92.79

Smart Money Entry

37.2¢ → 4.5¢

-88% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidEagles at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders96%

Eagles5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles5 traders

Total Value$737.04

Total Shares2,196

Combined PnL-$80.59

Commanders4 traders

Total Value$117.18

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$12.19

Eagles — 56%Commanders — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Eaglesavg 35¢	$351.75	$412.05	+$60.3	47% 1179-1337 (2516)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Eaglesavg 36.1¢	$213.64	$195.36	-$18.28	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Eaglesavg 36¢	$61.8	$70.38	+$8.58	62% 2217-1351 (3568)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Commandersavg 70.4¢	$69.6	$58.35	-$11.25	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Eaglesavg 44.8¢	$188.72	$56.9	-$131.82	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
TA takeormake<$100	Commandersavg 62.5¢	$29.75	$30.56	+$0.81	53% 4359-3820 (8179)
RN1<$100	Commandersavg 64.4¢	$25.02	$23.36	-$1.66	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
Relaccsed<$100	Commandersavg 88¢	$5	$4.91	-$0.09	56% 1214-967 (2181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 30¢	$1.71	$2.34	+$0.63	56% 14473-11230 (25703)

primmCTR

Eagles

Invested

$351.75

Value

$412.05

PnL

+$60.3

Record

47%

1179-1337 (2516)

UpTheBluesCTR

Eagles

Invested

$213.64

Value

$195.36

PnL

-$18.28

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$61.8

Value

$70.38

PnL

+$8.58

Record

62%

2217-1351 (3568)

justaluckydude<$100

Commanders

Invested

$69.6

Value

$58.35

PnL

-$11.25

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

topdogbigboiCTR

Eagles

Invested

$188.72

Value

$56.9

PnL

-$131.82

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

takeormake<$100

Commanders

Invested

$29.75

Value

$30.56

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

RN1<$100

Commanders

Invested

$25.02

Value

$23.36

PnL

-$1.66

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

Relaccsed<$100

Commanders

Invested

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

1214-967 (2181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$1.71

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

Research grade

AvoidEagles at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.