Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Commanders, while the market favors Eagles (77%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Commanders (-4.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (63%) · Commanders at 23¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 2

Commanders23¢Eagles77¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.2K

Combined PnL

$-17.2K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 23¢

-57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCommanders at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders23%

Eagles77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders5 traders

Total Value$46.2K

Total Shares108,396

Combined PnL$-17.5K

Eagles3 traders

Total Value$930.94

Total Shares1,422

Combined PnL+$321.85

Commanders — 63%Eagles — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Commandersavg 53¢	$46.8K	$30.5K	$-16.3K	43% 570-741 (1311)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Commandersavg 53¢	$12.8K	$13.0K	+$224.9	54% 17361-14580 (31941)
VeryLucky888CTR	Commandersavg 53¢	$5.3K	$2.6K	$-1.4K	58% 42958-31249 (74207)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Eaglesavg 41¢	$376.79	$601.95	+$225.16	46% 370-434 (804)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Eaglesavg 46¢	$228.16	$324.88	+$96.72	54% 3115-2681 (5796)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Commandersavg 42¢	$74.82	$73.93	-$0.89	59% 47293-33525 (80818)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Eaglesavg 68¢	$64.86	$69.44	+$4.58	48% 9222-9929 (19151)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 68¢	$41.86	$48.94	+$7.08
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 23¢	$23	$20.5	-$2.5
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Commandersavg 53¢	$59.36	$38.64	-$20.72	55% 7377-5931 (13308)
TA takeormake<$100	Eaglesavg 58.8¢	$4.14	$4.12	-$0.02	53% 4301-3748 (8049)

BreakTheBankCTR

Commanders

Invested

$46,789.88

Value

$30.5K

PnL

$-16.3K

Record

43%

570-741 (1311)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Commanders

Invested

$12,775.16

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$224.9

Record

54%

17361-14580 (31941)

VeryLucky888CTR

Commanders

Invested

$5,300

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

58%

42958-31249 (74207)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Eagles

Invested

$376.79

Value

$601.95

PnL

+$225.16

Record

46%

370-434 (804)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Eagles

Invested

$228.16

Value

$324.88

PnL

+$96.72

Record

54%

3115-2681 (5796)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$74.82

Value

$73.93

PnL

-$0.89

Record

59%

47293-33525 (80818)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$64.86

Value

$69.44

PnL

+$4.58

Record

48%

9222-9929 (19151)

Both legs:

Eagles$41.8668¢+$7.08

Commanders$2323¢-$2.5

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$59.36

Value

$38.64

PnL

-$20.72

Record

55%

7377-5931 (13308)

takeormake<$100

Eagles

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

4301-3748 (8049)

Research grade

AvoidCommanders at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.