Red Wings vs. Blues: O/U 5.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$433.28

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 60¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,896

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$765.23

Total Shares4,586

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Underavg 46.5¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$725.74	53% 95-83 (178)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 46¢	$406.18	$701.31	+$351.13	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 53¢	$2.1K	$600	$-1.5K	2% 3-178 (181)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$89.51	$88.19	-$1.32	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 14.7¢	$43.99	$44.8	+$0.81	49% 450-474 (924)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 61¢	$19.69	$30.51	+$10.81	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$19.89	$18.42	-$1.47	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.25	$11.76	+$2.51	28% 305-773 (1078)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$16.18	$11.47	-$4.71	55% 120-99 (219)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 46¢	$8.52	$11.3	+$2.78	54% 401-336 (737)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.9	$2.35	+$0.45	19% 79-328 (407)

taylorsversion

Under

Invested

$2,330.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$725.74

Record

53%

95-83 (178)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$406.18

Value

$701.31

PnL

+$351.13

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,120

Value

$600

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

3-178 (181)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.51

Value

$88.19

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.99

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$19.69

Value

$30.51

PnL

+$10.81

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.89

Value

$18.42

PnL

-$1.47

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$9.25

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$2.51

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.18

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$4.71

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.52

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$2.78

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

19%

79-328 (407)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.