Panthers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 65¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$36.1

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 64.5¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,053

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,419

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 44¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$566.14	47% 500-558 (1058)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45¢	$844.36	$1.1K	+$243.93	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	$-1.2K	1% 2-178 (180)
HI hi774c	Underavg 44¢	$593.55	$782.41	+$188.86	8% 37-422 (459)
0xheavy888	Underavg 44¢	$462	$608.99	+$147	55% 120-97 (217)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 44.1¢	$177.31	$198.89	+$21.58	10% 88-785 (873)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 44.8¢	$142.05	$183.86	+$41.81	48% 949-1019 (1968)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$101.55	$85.56	-$15.99	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$54.47	$52.81	-$0.16	49% 444-470 (914)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$5.8	+$1.4	26% 181-519 (700)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.26	$2.92	+$0.65	54% 383-322 (705)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$1,779.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$566.14

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$844.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$243.93

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,257.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

2-178 (180)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$593.55

Value

$782.41

PnL

+$188.86

Record

37-422 (459)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$462

Value

$608.99

PnL

+$147

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$177.31

Value

$198.89

PnL

+$21.58

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$142.05

Value

$183.86

PnL

+$41.81

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$101.55

Value

$85.56

PnL

-$15.99

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.47

Value

$52.81

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$1.4

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.65

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.