Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 23¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$9.6K
$1.1K
19.5¢ → 22.5¢
+15% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
626h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88 881112CTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$150.61 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $1.4K | $2.6K | +$1.3K | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$117.27 | 36% 2086-3721 (5807) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 77.4¢ | $790 | $780 | -$10 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $766.06 | $747.67 | -$18.37 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $356.7 | $358.48 | +$1.78 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $386.99 | $315 | -$72 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $262.5 | $227.81 | -$34.69 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $300 | $225 | -$75 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
Invested
$3,020
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$150.61
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
NadmiCTRInvested
$1,352.45
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$1,272.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$117.27
Record
36%
2086-3721 (5807)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$790
Value
$780
PnL
-$10
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$766.06
Value
$747.67
PnL
-$18.37
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
paddaaCTRInvested
$356.7
Value
$358.48
PnL
+$1.78
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
PorxCTRInvested
$386.99
Value
$315
PnL
-$72
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$262.5
Value
$227.81
PnL
-$34.69
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
Invested
$300
Value
$225
PnL
-$75
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.