Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-11-02?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 41¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 2

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$93.23

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 40.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares20,720

Combined PnL-$223.22

No7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares13,486

Combined PnL+$129.99

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HY hydra1248CTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$105.34	60% 24-16 (40)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 41.7¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$117.51	37% 500-843 (1343)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 59¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$21.68	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 58¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$52.55	53% 5747-5084 (10831)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$41.9	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
CA Cannae	Noavg 58.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.94	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 58¢	$118.9	$118.9	+$0	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 58¢	$100.92	$100.92	+$0	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$24.99	$24.38	-$0.3	65% 1809-988 (2797)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 59¢	$9.27	$9.12	-$0.08	50% 24998-24718 (49716)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$5.08	$5.02	-$0.06	53% 2312-2036 (4348)

hydra1248CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,456.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$105.34

Record

60%

24-16 (40)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,128.22

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$117.51

Record

37%

500-843 (1343)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,530.22

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$21.68

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,031.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$52.55

Record

53%

5747-5084 (10831)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,630.9

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$41.9

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

Cannae

Invested

$1,487.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.94

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$118.9

Value

$118.9

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

38791873984189

Invested

$100.92

Value

$100.92

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.38

PnL

-$0.3

Record

65%

1809-988 (2797)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

24998-24718 (49716)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.