Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Shabab Saudi Club, while the market favors Abha Saudi Club (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Abha Saudi Club (-2.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Al Shabab Saudi Club (50%) · Al Shabab Saudi Club at 50¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Al Shabab Saudi Club
8
Al Shabab Saudi Club 50%
$9.2K
-$540.74
83.2¢ → 50¢
-40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Shabab Saudi Club at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Abha Saudi Club 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
102h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Al Shabab Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 91.6¢ | $7.0K | $3.9K | $-3.1K | 49% 6418-6597 (13015) |
JA JabJabich | Abha Saudi Clubavg 8.7¢ | $586.12 | $3.3K | +$2.7K | 62% 213-132 (345) |
E4 e46m3 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$82.14 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 46.5¢ | $500.63 | $533.04 | +$32.41 | 83% 91-18 (109) |
FO forecastication4 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 61.8¢ | $257.66 | $210.59 | -$47.08 | 50% 1423-1429 (2852) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 51.2¢ | $213.2 | $203.84 | -$9.36 | 51% 2062-2000 (4062) |
US User7429 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 75.8¢ | $114.4 | $76.17 | -$36.81 | 56% 9429-7491 (16920) |
 dips.<$100 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 49.2¢ | $20.19 | $20.09 | -$0.1 | 47% 11040-12658 (23698) |
Invested
$6,992.16
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
49%
6418-6597 (13015)
Invested
$586.12
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
62%
213-132 (345)
Invested
$1,126.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$82.14
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121Invested
$500.63
Value
$533.04
PnL
+$32.41
Record
83%
91-18 (109)
Invested
$257.66
Value
$210.59
PnL
-$47.08
Record
50%
1423-1429 (2852)
Invested
$213.2
Value
$203.84
PnL
-$9.36
Record
51%
2062-2000 (4062)
Invested
$114.4
Value
$76.17
PnL
-$36.81
Record
56%
9429-7491 (16920)
dips.<$100Invested
$20.19
Value
$20.09
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
11040-12658 (23698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
purplegatto
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $3.9K
JabJabich
Abha Saudi Club — $3.3K
e46m3
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $1.0K
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121
Abha Saudi Club — $533.04
forecastication4
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $210.59
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Abha Saudi Club — $203.84
User7429
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $76.17
dips.
Abha Saudi Club — $20.09