Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 0.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 5

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$76.98

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 50.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL-$195.99

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,856

Combined PnL+$119.01

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$51.38	47% 1300-1465 (2765)
dips.	Underavg 49.2¢	$883.51	$905.97	+$35.88	47% 10792-12349 (23141)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 49.9¢	$686.33	$694.53	+$8.2	50% 21358-21635 (42993)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 48.1¢	$556.18	$583.73	+$40.55	34% 19423-36974 (56397)
US User7429CTR	Overavg 78.2¢	$383.37	$242.8	-$140.57	56% 9166-7311 (16477)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51.2¢	$204.31	$201.59	+$2.12	51% 1984-1917 (3901)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$34.07	$66.34	+$32.26	83% 89-18 (107)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Overavg 13.3¢	$16.89	$62.63	-$4.04	67% 27580-13871 (41451)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$51.38

Record

47%

1300-1465 (2765)

dips.

Under

Invested

$883.51

Value

$905.97

PnL

+$35.88

Record

47%

10792-12349 (23141)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$686.33

Value

$694.53

PnL

+$8.2

Record

50%

21358-21635 (42993)

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$556.18

Value

$583.73

PnL

+$40.55

Record

34%

19423-36974 (56397)

User7429CTR

Over

Invested

$383.37

Value

$242.8

PnL

-$140.57

Record

56%

9166-7311 (16477)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$204.31

Value

$201.59

PnL

+$2.12

Record

51%

1984-1917 (3901)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100

Under

Invested

$34.07

Value

$66.34

PnL

+$32.26

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

e46m3CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.89

Value

$62.63

PnL

-$4.04

Record

67%

27580-13871 (41451)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.