Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Taawoun Saudi Club?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 2.9¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

-$923.9

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 2.9¢

-96% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares19,758

Combined PnL+$13.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares18,956

Combined PnL$-14.4K

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 25.1¢	$2.2K	$8.4K	+$6.1K	85% 17-3 (20)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 16.9¢	$745.66	$4.1K	+$3.4K	— 6-0 (6)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 15.2¢	$609.95	$3.8K	+$3.1K	83% 89-18 (107)
DI dips.	Yesavg 95.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$19.78	47% 10724-12261 (22985)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 30¢	$212.36	$664.32	+$472.49	50% 174-171 (345)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 83.1¢	$8.7K	$640.36	$-8.3K	51% 26251-24882 (51133)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 74.4¢	$6.4K	$525.41	$-6.1K	51% 37914-37162 (75076)
WH whosay	Yesavg 59.5¢	$161.14	$254.33	+$93.33	56% 1153-893 (2046)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 17¢	$27.03	$149.22	+$122.19	74% 111-39 (150)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.75	$23.49	+$22.81	67% 27552-13859 (41411)
donube<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$9.08	$13.52	+$4.45	61% 878-557 (1435)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$2,247.4

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

85%

17-3 (20)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$745.66

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$609.95

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,159.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.78

Record

47%

10724-12261 (22985)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$212.36

Value

$664.32

PnL

+$472.49

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$8,650.19

Value

$640.36

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

51%

26251-24882 (51133)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$6,358.46

Value

$525.41

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

51%

37914-37162 (75076)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$161.14

Value

$254.33

PnL

+$93.33

Record

56%

1153-893 (2046)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$149.22

PnL

+$122.19

Record

74%

111-39 (150)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$23.49

PnL

+$22.81

Record

67%

27552-13859 (41411)

donube<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$4.45

Record

61%

878-557 (1435)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.0%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2378.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

2478.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.