Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 NEOM SC?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 3.6¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 56%
$12.0K
$-2.5K
72.9¢ → 3.6¢
-95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 morito181 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $1.6K | $6.5K | +$4.9K | 61% 871-555 (1426) |
RO roscoff | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $1.0K | $3.1K | +$2.1K | 51% 174-169 (343) |
 shineforever | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $615.07 | $1.3K | +$664.8 | 58% 87-63 (150) |
DI dips. | Yesavg 84.2¢ | $876.34 | $1.0K | +$127.38 | 47% 10501-11996 (22497) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 75.3¢ | $10.4K | $180.06 | $-9.9K | 51% 25264-24010 (49274) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.9¢ | $68.4 | $6.41 | -$61.99 | 18% 4414-20716 (25130) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 87¢ | $261 | $3.9 | -$257.1 | 58% 46107-33290 (79397) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $3.12 | $1.35 | -$1.77 | 35% 18692-34699 (53391) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $4.57 | $0.2 | -$4.37 | 50% 21032-21299 (42331) |
morito181Invested
$1,602.92
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$4.9K
Record
61%
871-555 (1426)
Invested
$1,018.47
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
51%
174-169 (343)
shineforeverInvested
$615.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$664.8
Record
58%
87-63 (150)
Invested
$876.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$127.38
Record
47%
10501-11996 (22497)
Invested
$10,424.5
Value
$180.06
PnL
$-9.9K
Record
51%
25264-24010 (49274)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$68.4
Value
$6.41
PnL
-$61.99
Record
18%
4414-20716 (25130)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$261
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$257.1
Record
58%
46107-33290 (79397)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$1.77
Record
35%
18692-34699 (53391)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$4.37
Record
50%
21032-21299 (42331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.