Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 14

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$50.09

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 69.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$836.99

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL+$43.23

Over4 traders

Total Value$104.27

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$6.86

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 66.1¢	$699.55	$740.87	+$41.33	58% 50265-36309 (86574)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 78.9¢	$159.38	$149.86	-$9.52	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ Under leg	Underavg 78.9¢	$132.68	$116.94	-$15.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.7¢	$26.71	$32.92	+$6.21
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 68.3¢	$84.77	$86.3	+$1.53	50% 36333-35815 (72148)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$46.03	$50.17	+$4.14	49% 14322-14999 (29321)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 28.9¢	$43.23	$45.26	+$2.03	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 83¢	$41.8	$44.23	+$2.42	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$16.8	$23.29	+$6.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 83¢	$25.01	$20.94	-$4.07
IW iWasEnough<$100	Underavg 67¢	$8.11	$8.43	+$0.32	51% 11897-11293 (23190)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$7.65	$5.83	-$1.82	56% 8920-7126 (16046)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.49	$3	+$2.51	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100	Underavg 67¢	$2.01	$1.39	+$0.05	64% 8672-4799 (13471)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$699.55

Value

$740.87

PnL

+$41.33

Record

58%

50265-36309 (86574)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$159.38

Value

$149.86

PnL

-$9.52

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

Under$132.6878.9¢-$15.74

Over$26.7124.7¢+$6.21

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$84.77

Value

$86.3

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

36333-35815 (72148)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.03

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$4.14

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.23

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$2.03

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$41.8

Value

$44.23

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

Both legs:

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

11897-11293 (23190)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$1.82

Record

56%

8920-7126 (16046)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

PnL

+$2.51

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

youcanbuythisbot<$100

Under

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

8672-4799 (13471)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.