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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $37K held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.7K

Combined PnL

$9.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 88.5¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares38,842

Combined PnL+$10.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares11,321

Combined PnL-$371.54

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

2985h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (2 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 61.5¢	$20.3K	$29.2K	+$8.9K	47% 476-535 (1011)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 68.4¢	$3.2K	$4.1K	+$936.59	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$735	$1.0K	+$304.8	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$383.15	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.4¢	$451.43	$695.6	+$200.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.2¢	$1.1K	$324.35	-$583.78
Car	Noavg 68.7¢	$583.44	$751.08	+$167.64	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
nicoco89	Noavg 64.4¢	$206.2	$283.2	+$77	65% 1075-583 (1658)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 38.3¢	$447.04	$134.44	-$312.61	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 42.9¢	$315.84	$84.69	-$231.15	61% 1200-768 (1968)
siickCTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$175.63	$43.05	-$132.58	57% 768-580 (1348)

anoin123

Invested

$20,291.2

Value

$29.2K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$3,195.76

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$936.59

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$735

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$304.8

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,403.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$383.15

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$451.4357.4¢+$200.64

Yes$1,077.2638.2¢-$583.78

Car

Invested

$583.44

Value

$751.08

PnL

+$167.64

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

nicoco89

Invested

$206.2

Value

$283.2

PnL

+$77

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$447.04

Value

$134.44

PnL

-$312.61

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$315.84

Value

$84.69

PnL

-$231.15

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.63

Value

$43.05

PnL

-$132.58

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

2985h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (2 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.