AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 74¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$375.87

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 73.5¢

+70% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,854

Combined PnL+$359.41

Over1 trader

Total Value$855.98

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL+$16.46

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 44.1¢	$661.52	$937.63	+$293.96	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Overavg 51¢	$839.52	$855.98	+$16.46	48% 12-13 (25)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 43¢	$647.82	$660	+$15.06	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 41¢	$466.58	$512.1	+$45.52	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
poshposh	Underavg 42.2¢	$172.07	$195.6	+$23.53	57% 12266-9326 (21592)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 44.7¢	$211.82	$179.88	-$31.94	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 46.5¢	$162.83	$166.31	+$3.48	59% 31860-22491 (54351)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 43¢	$129	$138	+$9	50% 2685-2677 (5362)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 46¢	$89.01	$88.92	-$0.09	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$24.36	$25.25	+$0.89	54% 510-439 (949)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$661.52

Value

$937.63

PnL

+$293.96

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

CornerGamingCTR

Over

Invested

$839.52

Value

$855.98

PnL

+$16.46

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$647.82

Value

$660

PnL

+$15.06

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$466.58

Value

$512.1

PnL

+$45.52

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$172.07

Value

$195.6

PnL

+$23.53

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$211.82

Value

$179.88

PnL

-$31.94

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$162.83

Value

$166.31

PnL

+$3.48

Record

59%

31860-22491 (54351)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$129

Value

$138

PnL

+$9

Record

50%

2685-2677 (5362)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$89.01

Value

$88.92

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Under

Invested

$24.36

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

510-439 (949)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.