Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$24.74

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 87¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,509

Combined PnL+$25.09

Over2 traders

Total Value$9.86

Total Shares76

Combined PnL-$0.35

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 86.6¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$20	67% 238-117 (355)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 83¢	$440.79	$462.04	+$21.24	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 14¢	$430.8	$415.93	-$14.87	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Over leg	Overavg 14¢	$285.18	$264.81	-$20.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 83.8¢	$145.62	$151.12	+$5.5
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 85.6¢	$404.48	$411.09	+$6.61	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 83¢	$251.37	$268.35	+$16.98	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
DA darkumbreon88	Underavg 87¢	$185.51	$185.51	-$0	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 87¢	$19.07	$19.07	-$0	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 83¢	$5.49	$5.76	+$0.26	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$5.31	$5.31	+$0	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$4.9	$4.55	-$0.35	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$3,464.08

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$20

Record

67%

238-117 (355)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$440.79

Value

$462.04

PnL

+$21.24

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$430.8

Value

$415.93

PnL

-$14.87

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Over$285.1814¢-$20.37

Under$145.6283.8¢+$5.5

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$404.48

Value

$411.09

PnL

+$6.61

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$251.37

Value

$268.35

PnL

+$16.98

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

darkumbreon88

Under

Invested

$185.51

Value

$185.51

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.07

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.