Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-11-05?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$225.92

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 89.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,296

Combined PnL+$112.37

Yes6 traders

Total Value$451.32

Total Shares4,340

Combined PnL-$338.3

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 89.6¢	$929.06	$923.17	-$5.9	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 75¢	$600	$712	+$116	63% 783-469 (1252)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 89.2¢	$288.68	$247.06	+$1.18	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 30.8¢	$500	$170.21	-$329.79	23% 16-55 (71)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 89¢	$111.7	$112.33	+$0.63	48% 7284-7769 (15053)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$103.09	$101.39	-$1.7	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$77.04	$76.18	-$0.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.3¢	$26.05	$25.21	-$0.84
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$97.01	$87.8	-$9.21	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$71.97	$75.57	+$3.6	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$65.53	$59.89	-$5.64	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$46.33	$48.64	+$2.32	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 89¢	$33.82	$33.82	-$0	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$30.09	$22.38	+$0.47	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$8.77	$9.21	+$0.44	50% 25481-25189 (50670)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$929.06

Value

$923.17

PnL

-$5.9

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

P1kaso

Invested

$600

Value

$712

PnL

+$116

Record

63%

783-469 (1252)

38791873984189

Invested

$288.68

Value

$247.06

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$170.21

PnL

-$329.79

Record

23%

16-55 (71)

Oddstorm

Invested

$111.7

Value

$112.33

PnL

+$0.63

Record

48%

7284-7769 (15053)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$103.09

Value

$101.39

PnL

-$1.7

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.01

Value

$87.8

PnL

-$9.21

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.97

Value

$75.57

PnL

+$3.6

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.53

Value

$59.89

PnL

-$5.64

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.33

Value

$48.64

PnL

+$2.32

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$33.82

Value

$33.82

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$30.09

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$0.47

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.77

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.