Olympiakós SFP leading at halftime?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$2.2K
$425.06
76.8¢ → 95.8¢
+25% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 76.2¢ | $715.48 | $898.95 | +$183.47 | 52% 1149-1045 (2194) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 76.1¢ | $483.28 | $591.1 | +$107.82 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 75.6¢ | $320.1 | $405.71 | +$85.61 | 54% 1193-1031 (2224) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 76.9¢ | $175.17 | $218.18 | +$43.02 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $45.62 | $45.62 | +$0 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $33.46 | $36.85 | +$3.38 | 50% 27770-27632 (55402) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $11.02 | $10.89 | -$0.13 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.46 | $6.23 | +$0.77 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $4.31 | $5.44 | +$1.13 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
Invested
$715.48
Value
$898.95
PnL
+$183.47
Record
52%
1149-1045 (2194)
Invested
$483.28
Value
$591.1
PnL
+$107.82
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$320.1
Value
$405.71
PnL
+$85.61
Record
54%
1193-1031 (2224)
Invested
$175.17
Value
$218.18
PnL
+$43.02
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
Invested
$45.62
Value
$45.62
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Invested
$33.46
Value
$36.85
PnL
+$3.38
Record
50%
27770-27632 (55402)
Invested
$11.02
Value
$10.89
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$6.23
PnL
+$0.77
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.31
Value
$5.44
PnL
+$1.13
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.