Sunderland AFC vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 1.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 5

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$132.98

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$496.16

Total Shares604

Combined PnL-$16.89

Under7 traders

Total Value$162.74

Total Shares1,356

Combined PnL-$116.09

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 80¢	$375.24	$361.17	-$14.07	64% 1961-1091 (3052)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 79¢	$257.77	$270.41	+$12.63	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
└ Over leg	Overavg 79¢	$148.2	$144.4	-$3.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$109.57	$126.01	+$16.44
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 11¢	$86.78	$148.29	+$61.51	53% 61372-53688 (115060)
└ Under leg	Underavg 11¢	$54.74	$114.03	+$59.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$32.04	$34.27	+$2.23
38 38791873984189	Overavg 88.3¢	$123.4	$114.99	-$4.96	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$67.05	$67.29	+$0.23	51% 1384-1348 (2732)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 21.8¢	$59.38	$62.56	+$3.18	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$11.11	$25.56	+$14.44	49% 14711-15381 (30092)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 80.3¢	$31.78	$20	+$2.14	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20.8¢	$5.23	$5.78	+$0.55	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.37	$1.23	+$0.85	47% 11713-13434 (25147)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 20.8¢	$133.8	$0.32	-$133.48	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.89	$0	-$1.88	53% 1430-1268 (2698)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$375.24

Value

$361.17

PnL

-$14.07

Record

64%

1961-1091 (3052)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$257.77

Value

$270.41

PnL

+$12.63

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

Both legs:

Over$148.279¢-$3.8

Under$109.5720¢+$16.44

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$86.78

Value

$148.29

PnL

+$61.51

Record

53%

61372-53688 (115060)

Both legs:

Under$54.7411¢+$59.29

Over$32.0472¢+$2.23

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$123.4

Value

$114.99

PnL

-$4.96

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.05

Value

$67.29

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

1384-1348 (2732)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.38

Value

$62.56

PnL

+$3.18

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.11

Value

$25.56

PnL

+$14.44

Record

49%

14711-15381 (30092)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$31.78

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.14

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.37

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.85

Record

47%

11713-13434 (25147)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$133.8

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$133.48

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.89

Value

PnL

-$1.88

Record

53%

1430-1268 (2698)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.