UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ciryl Gane (78%) · Ciryl Gane at 67¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Josh Hokit34¢Ciryl Gane66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ciryl Gane

Consensus Traders

Ciryl Gane 78%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$307.27

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCiryl Gane at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ciryl Gane

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Josh Hokit34%

Ciryl Gane67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ciryl Gane7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,295

Combined PnL+$304.77

Josh Hokit2 traders

Total Value$207.58

Total Shares611

Combined PnL+$2.5

Ciryl Gane — 78%Josh Hokit — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ciryl Gane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJosh Hokit 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpCiryl Gane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCiryl Gane 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCiryl Gane 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ciryl Gane 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.9¢	$9.1K	$3.0K	+$294.06	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
4751346	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.5	73% 1314-497 (1811)
JE Jest55	Ciryl Ganeavg 66.6¢	$465.98	$475.98	-$0.5	76% 1120-352 (1472)
G.Hchen	Ciryl Ganeavg 67¢	$334.99	$329.99	-$5	57% 398-305 (703)
CI cigarettesCTR	Josh Hokitavg 33.1¢	$165.44	$170	+$2.5	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Josh Hokitavg 34.1¢	$37.69	$37.58	+$0	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 68.2¢	$20.44	$20.39	-$0.35	52% 9014-8167 (17181)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 67¢	$10	$10.15	-$0.07	53% 2695-2376 (5071)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.2¢	$3.61	$3.77	+$0.14	51% 27202-25761 (52963)

VeryLucky888

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$9,114.72

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$294.06

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

4751346

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$1,003.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.5

Record

73%

1314-497 (1811)

Jest55

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$465.98

Value

$475.98

PnL

-$0.5

Record

76%

1120-352 (1472)

G.Hchen

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$334.99

Value

$329.99

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

398-305 (703)

cigarettesCTR

Josh Hokit

Invested

$165.44

Value

$170

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Josh Hokit

Invested

$37.69

Value

$37.58

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$20.44

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$10

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

Flaznorp<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Research grade

NeutralCiryl Gane at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ciryl Gane

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ciryl Gane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJosh Hokit 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpCiryl Gane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCiryl Gane 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCiryl Gane 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ciryl Gane 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ciryl Gane wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.