Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $46K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$45.6K
$7.1K
76.6¢ → 94.8¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 95%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 76.2¢ | $30.5K | $35.8K | +$6.9K | 66% 487-255 (742) |
 How.Dare.You | Noavg 90¢ | $5.0K | $5.3K | +$266.64 | 72% 815-323 (1138) |
 DumplingBMF | Noavg 45.6¢ | $1.1K | $2.1K | +$1.1K | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
88 881112ARB<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.3K | $1.2K | $-2.0K | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.8K | $767.99 | $-2.0K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88¢ | $440 | $475.75 | +$34 | |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 87.7¢ | $589.15 | $843.64 | +$88.79 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 mombilCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $624.49 | $155.17 | -$469.31 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $561.7 | $69.57 | -$462.63 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $273.95 | $26.61 | -$247.35 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $5.54 | $6.68 | +$1.14 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
Invested
$30,516.21
Value
$35.8K
PnL
+$6.9K
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
How.Dare.YouInvested
$4,999.5
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$266.64
Record
72%
815-323 (1138)
DumplingBMFInvested
$1,059.55
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$3,344.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
Both legs:
Invested
$589.15
Value
$843.64
PnL
+$88.79
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
mombilCTRInvested
$624.49
Value
$155.17
PnL
-$469.31
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
probabilityCTRInvested
$561.7
Value
$69.57
PnL
-$462.63
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$273.95
Value
$26.61
PnL
-$247.35
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$1.14
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.