Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$1.6K
-$6.58
67.1¢ → 97.3¢
+45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CQ cqs | Noavg 68.7¢ | $675.15 | $990 | +$314.85 | 65% 228-122 (350) |
 DumplingBMF | Noavg 63.9¢ | $286.61 | $450 | +$163.39 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $362.85 | $55.05 | -$307.8 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $10 | $26.5 | +$3 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $186.13 | $22.22 | -$155.39 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $16.53 | $15.48 | -$4.71 | 50% 969-986 (1955) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $10.6 | -$25.6 | 62% 649-396 (1045) |
KR Krass<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $3.37 | $9 | +$5.63 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 Porx<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $2.71 | $2.75 | +$0.04 | 66% 1482-768 (2250) |
Invested
$675.15
Value
$990
PnL
+$314.85
Record
65%
228-122 (350)
DumplingBMFInvested
$286.61
Value
$450
PnL
+$163.39
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$362.85
Value
$55.05
PnL
-$307.8
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$26.5
PnL
+$3
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
probabilityCTRInvested
$186.13
Value
$22.22
PnL
-$155.39
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$16.53
Value
$15.48
PnL
-$4.71
Record
50%
969-986 (1955)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$25.6
Record
62%
649-396 (1045)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$9
PnL
+$5.63
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
Porx<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.04
Record
66%
1482-768 (2250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.