Consensus PnL $309K · win rate 66% (151–77, n=228) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$309.2K
Record
151W / 77L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 228 settled
Batting Avg
62.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#898
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
19,944
Markets
407
Volume
$9.2M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 15 on the consensus side (73%)- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $174K · now 94¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $83K · now 95¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $60K · now 97¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $22K · now 95¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $15K · now 95¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $12K · now 12¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (91% of 33)
- SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No $9.4K · now 95¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (78% of 10)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.0K · now 21¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
Specialties
342 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 64¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 73% of 139 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 80% of 64 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 56% of 80 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 8% of 71)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 47% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 69% of 45)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 96% of 190)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.