Will BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$28.74

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 83.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,283

Combined PnL-$29.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.57

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$0.98

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.6¢	$884	$874.7	-$9.3	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$550.41	$672.18	+$148.17	25% 215-633 (848)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$300.5	$464.11	+$163.6
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$221.62	$208.07	-$15.43
LI Limousin	Noavg 90¢	$427.39	$408.39	-$19	25% 213-654 (867)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$360	$362	+$2	49% 231-239 (470)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90.5¢	$342.5	$338.76	-$3.73	25% 213-654 (867)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.5	$44.25	-$0.25	63% 152-88 (240)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 90¢	$38	$38	+$0	25% 214-643 (857)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 86¢	$27.87	$28.03	+$0.16	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 87¢	$13.6	$14	+$0.4	31% 170-383 (553)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$3.47	$4.66	+$1.19	35% 335-614 (949)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.13	$1.92	-$0.21	37% 191-330 (521)

Flaznorp

Invested

$884

Value

$874.7

PnL

-$9.3

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$550.41

Value

$672.18

PnL

+$148.17

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

Both legs:

Yes$300.510¢+$163.6

No$221.6290¢-$15.43

Limousin

Invested

$427.39

Value

$408.39

PnL

-$19

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$360

Value

$362

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

Venusian

Invested

$342.5

Value

$338.76

PnL

-$3.73

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

suitcase6628<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$44.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

63%

152-88 (240)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$38

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$27.87

Value

$28.03

PnL

+$0.16

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.4

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$1.19

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.