Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BK Häcken FF (44%) · BK Häcken FF at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Chelsea FC29¢BK Häcken FF71¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BK Häcken FF

Consensus Traders

BK Häcken FF 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$18.08

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 71¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBK Häcken FF at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BK Häcken FF

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chelsea FC29%

BK Häcken FF71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BK Häcken FF4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,625

Combined PnL-$20.13

Chelsea FC5 traders

Total Value$211.54

Total Shares495

Combined PnL+$2.05

BK Häcken FF — 44%Chelsea FC — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on BK Häcken FF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BK Häcken FF) and the top 1000 (9 on Chelsea FC) disagree here.

ctrChelsea FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedBK Häcken FF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea FC 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	BK Häcken FFavg 62.8¢	$915.9	$729.31	+$46.22	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Chelsea FCavg 39.8¢	$841.59	$649.8	-$191.79	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Chelsea FC leg	Chelsea FCavg 39.8¢	$648.73	$456.94	-$191.79
└ BK Häcken FF leg	BK Häcken FFavg 72¢	$192.86	$192.86	-$0
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	BK Häcken FFavg 57¢	$461.9	$457.85	-$4.05	2% 4-256 (260)
OM omnibus-076daa	BK Häcken FFavg 64¢	$364.11	$324.29	-$39.82	37% 191-330 (521)
VeryLucky888	BK Häcken FFavg 62.6¢	$231.1	$208.64	-$22.47	49% 231-239 (470)
VE VenusianCTR	Chelsea FCavg 42¢	$102.77	$89.31	-$13.46	25% 213-654 (867)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 35.9¢	$66.95	$76.31	+$9.37	31% 170-383 (553)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 37¢	$36.48	$42.4	+$5.92	25% 214-643 (857)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 41¢	$2.71	$2.84	+$0.13	25% 215-633 (848)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 37¢	$0.59	$0.68	+$0.1	47% 148-167 (315)

Flaznorp

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$915.9

Value

$729.31

PnL

+$46.22

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$841.59

Value

$649.8

PnL

-$191.79

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Chelsea FC$648.7339.8¢-$191.79

BK Häcken FF$192.8672¢-$0

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$461.9

Value

$457.85

PnL

-$4.05

Record

4-256 (260)

omnibus-076daa

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$364.11

Value

$324.29

PnL

-$39.82

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

VeryLucky888

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$231.1

Value

$208.64

PnL

-$22.47

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

VenusianCTR

Chelsea FC

Invested

$102.77

Value

$89.31

PnL

-$13.46

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

sentrioCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$66.95

Value

$76.31

PnL

+$9.37

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$36.48

Value

$42.4

PnL

+$5.92

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.13

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Research grade

NeutralBK Häcken FF at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BK Häcken FF

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on BK Häcken FF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BK Häcken FF) and the top 1000 (9 on Chelsea FC) disagree here.

ctrChelsea FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedBK Häcken FF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea FC 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BK Häcken FF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.