FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 5.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$42.65

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 53.4¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,031

Combined PnL+$58.27

Over1 trader

Total Value$184.39

Total Shares377

Combined PnL-$15.61

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$112.77	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$179.7	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.5¢	$1.1K	$992.09	-$126.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.4¢	$312.92	$259.91	-$53.01
MA maxiplayerARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.23	— 2-1 (3)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$502.03	$524.55	+$22.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$523.53	$512.24	-$11.29
LI LightParadox	Underavg 45.9¢	$923.44	$1.0K	+$105.43	26% 226-653 (879)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48.7¢	$683.45	$718.56	+$35.11	25% 222-667 (889)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$467.34	$577.91	+$110.57	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.4¢	$191.95	$303.94	+$111.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$275.4	$273.97	-$1.43
PA pauleta23CTR	Overavg 53¢	$200	$184.39	-$15.61	23% 130-436 (566)
LI Limousin	Underavg 40¢	$94.16	$120.31	+$26.15	25% 224-665 (889)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5.28	$9.63	+$4.35	50% 169-167 (336)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,856.45

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$112.77

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,431.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$179.7

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

Both legs:

Over$1,118.7852.5¢-$126.69

Under$312.9264.4¢-$53.01

maxiplayerARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,025.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.23

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Both legs:

Under$502.0347.9¢+$22.52

Over$523.5351¢-$11.29

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$923.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$105.43

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$683.45

Value

$718.56

PnL

+$35.11

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$467.34

Value

$577.91

PnL

+$110.57

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Over$191.9532.4¢+$111.99

Under$275.449¢-$1.43

pauleta23CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$184.39

PnL

-$15.61

Record

23%

130-436 (566)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$94.16

Value

$120.31

PnL

+$26.15

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$4.35

Record

50%

169-167 (336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.