Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Score
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 60¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 11%
$9.2K
$82.25
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA DaBossHogg | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$98.36 | 3% 1-33 (34) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$125 | 58% 3756-2709 (6465) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $972.06 | $981.13 | +$9.07 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Noavg 39.7¢ | $690.37 | $721.94 | +$31.57 | 60% 629-411 (1040) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $192.32 | $192.55 | +$0.23 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 40.7¢ | $284.55 | $123.01 | +$6.45 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $69.99 | $76.43 | +$6.45 | 47% 73-82 (155) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.1¢ | $69.65 | $70.67 | +$1.02 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.1¢ | $36.63 | $37.46 | +$0.83 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
Invested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$98.36
Record
3%
1-33 (34)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,950
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$125
Record
58%
3756-2709 (6465)
Invested
$972.06
Value
$981.13
PnL
+$9.07
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$690.37
Value
$721.94
PnL
+$31.57
Record
60%
629-411 (1040)
Invested
$192.32
Value
$192.55
PnL
+$0.23
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$284.55
Value
$123.01
PnL
+$6.45
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$69.99
Value
$76.43
PnL
+$6.45
Record
47%
73-82 (155)
Invested
$69.65
Value
$70.67
PnL
+$1.02
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$36.63
Value
$37.46
PnL
+$0.83
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.