Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FK Austria Wien?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 23¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 70%
$3.7K
$-4.3K
92.5¢ → 23¢
-75% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$9.9 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 92.5¢ | $5.9K | $1.5K | $-4.4K | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 91.9¢ | $275.7 | $212.4 | -$63.3 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
 itoney17 | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $88.46 | $136.88 | +$48.41 | — |
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $16.71 | $132.46 | +$115.75 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $42.57 | $43.79 | +$1.22 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
RO roscoff<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $38.52 | $42.62 | +$4.1 | 51% 39-38 (77) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $9.43 | $8.6 | -$0.83 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $5 | $6.19 | +$1.19 | 68% 1590-741 (2331) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.9¢ | $6.14 | $4.02 | -$2.12 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$1,604.3
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$9.9
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$5,852.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$275.7
Value
$212.4
PnL
-$63.3
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
itoney17Invested
$88.46
Value
$136.88
PnL
+$48.41
Record
—
Invested
$16.71
Value
$132.46
PnL
+$115.75
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
Invested
$42.57
Value
$43.79
PnL
+$1.22
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$42.62
PnL
+$4.1
Record
51%
39-38 (77)
Invested
$9.43
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$1.19
Record
68%
1590-741 (2331)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.14
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$2.12
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.