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7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 88¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$639.55

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 88.1¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,724

Combined PnL+$647.78

Yes2 traders

Total Value$124.32

Total Shares1,072

Combined PnL-$8.23

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

2769h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BlondBeast	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$292.72	69% 780-347 (1127)
TH thoodr	Noavg 87¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$18.52	96% 631-24 (655)
TR troim	Noavg 73¢	$584	$704.8	+$121.2	36% 397-691 (1088)
MisTKy	Noavg 80¢	$560	$616.7	+$56.7	71% 568-236 (804)
Donny.T	Noavg 82.2¢	$576.4	$616.26	+$39.87	72% 484-187 (671)
GL Gladius7	Noavg 73.8¢	$500.08	$596.64	+$96.57	48% 90-98 (188)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 78.1¢	$242.1	$264.3	+$22.2	77% 830-249 (1079)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$95	$75.46	-$45.51	55% 463-373 (836)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$12.64	$48.86	+$37.28	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

BlondBeast

Invested

$1,560.91

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$292.72

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

thoodr

Invested

$1,256.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$18.52

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

troim

Invested

$584

Value

$704.8

PnL

+$121.2

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

MisTKy

Invested

$560

Value

$616.7

PnL

+$56.7

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

Donny.T

Invested

$576.4

Value

$616.26

PnL

+$39.87

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Gladius7

Invested

$500.08

Value

$596.64

PnL

+$96.57

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$242.1

Value

$264.3

PnL

+$22.2

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$95

Value

$75.46

PnL

-$45.51

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.64

Value

$48.86

PnL

+$37.28

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

2769h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.6%

88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.