Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $128 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$127.83

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

1.9¢ → 0.1¢

-92% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$127.83

Total Shares85,223

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$483.38	$83.84	-$399.54	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$2.14	$18.66	-$179.12	53% 906-789 (1695)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$9.24	$9.24	-$464.48	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$456.1	$8.9	-$447.34	47% 85-95 (180)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$0	$2.37	+$2.37	41% 648-925 (1573)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$96.51	$2.36	+$2.36	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$264.54	$1.42	-$121.77	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.97	$0.97	-$48.78	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$3.78	$0.07	-$3.7	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$483.38

Value

$83.84

PnL

-$399.54

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$179.12

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$464.48

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$456.1

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$447.34

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$2.37

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.51

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$2.36

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$264.54

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$121.77

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$48.78

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.7

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.