Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$40.23

Combined PnL

-$522.08

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$40.23

Total Shares80,457

Combined PnL-$522.08

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

201 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yes	$22.72	$22.72	-$331.99	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$133.38	$9.94	-$123.44	67% 751-378 (1129)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.94	$3.27	-$47.75	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$1.67	+$1.67	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$1	+$1	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$858.82	$0.98	-$15.21	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.91	$0.57	-$6.42	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.04	+$0.04	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$213.34	$0.03	+$0.03	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.72

Value

$22.72

PnL

-$331.99

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$133.38

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$123.44

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.94

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$47.75

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$858.82

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$15.21

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$6.42

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,064.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$213.34

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

201 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.