Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 72¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$110.58

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 72¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,430

Combined PnL+$168.93

Yes3 traders

Total Value$709.64

Total Shares1,867

Combined PnL-$58.35

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigMackyG	Noavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$221.75	20% 108-423 (531)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$545.59	$534.48	-$4.87	18% 365-1640 (2005)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$390.98	$371.47	-$19.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.7¢	$148.29	$163.01	+$14.75
eCash	Noavg 64¢	$429.32	$393.32	-$36	68% 331-155 (486)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$430	$380	-$100	36% 397-691 (1088)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 62.8¢	$2.7K	$333.73	-$19.9	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 35.4¢	$197.94	$234.58	+$36.64	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$77.91	$103.16	+$21.99	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$74.72	$65.3	-$7.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.91	$37.86	+$29.96
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$87.05	$95.06	+$5	50% 415-417 (832)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$42.68	$45.77	+$3.08	42% 5284-7234 (12518)

BigMackyG

Invested

$1,305.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$221.75

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$545.59

Value

$534.48

PnL

-$4.87

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

Both legs:

No$390.9873.2¢-$19.63

Yes$148.2927.7¢+$14.75

eCash

Invested

$429.32

Value

$393.32

PnL

-$36

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$430

Value

$380

PnL

-$100

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$2,742.52

Value

$333.73

PnL

-$19.9

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$197.94

Value

$234.58

PnL

+$36.64

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$77.91

Value

$103.16

PnL

+$21.99

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Both legs:

No$74.7275¢-$7.97

Yes$2.912.9¢+$29.96

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.05

Value

$95.06

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$42.68

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$3.08

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.8%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.