Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

13.1¢ → 8.5¢

-35% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares32,179

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$802.57

Total Shares872

Combined PnL+$49.73

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	-$969.59	50% 415-417 (832)
LI lissartter	Noavg 83.1¢	$573.68	$605.78	+$32.1	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
XenyCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$467.44	$484.37	+$16.93	60% 978-662 (1640)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$256.26	$199.13	-$57.12	54% 229-195 (424)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$404.56	$181.41	-$223.15	66% 1107-565 (1672)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 87¢	$142.56	$150.75	+$7.37	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$35.78	$46.04	+$10.26	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$2.56	$2.31	-$0.25	50% 357-357 (714)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.15	$1.76	-$0.39	39% 175-269 (444)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,836.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$969.59

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

lissartter

Invested

$573.68

Value

$605.78

PnL

+$32.1

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

XenyCTR

Yes

Invested

$467.44

Value

$484.37

PnL

+$16.93

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.26

Value

$199.13

PnL

-$57.12

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$404.56

Value

$181.41

PnL

-$223.15

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

sbimbg

Invested

$142.56

Value

$150.75

PnL

+$7.37

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$35.78

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$10.26

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$0.39

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.8%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$915.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

1015.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.