Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$701.16

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 97.8¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,083

Combined PnL+$549.49

Yes6 traders

Total Value$297.41

Total Shares12,990

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4868h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Noavg 82¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$393.75	52% 5923-5521 (11444)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 87.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$118.71	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 86¢	$275.53	$312.29	+$36.76	53% 7652-6774 (14426)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$901.11	$155.96	-$745.15	66% 918-479 (1397)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$2.0K	$122.96	-$480.45	52% 1169-1072 (2241)
ME MenacingTurtle<$100	Noavg 97¢	$35.73	$34.91	+$0.27	56% 255-199 (454)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$261.64	$9.45	-$2.19	40% 2684-4012 (6696)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$12.32	$5.42	-$6.9	74% 12150-4330 (16480)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$9.52	$1.84	-$7.68	41% 1407-2028 (3435)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$10.05	$1.78	-$8.27	43% 470-622 (1092)

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$2,049.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$393.75

Record

52%

5923-5521 (11444)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,081.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$118.71

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$275.53

Value

$312.29

PnL

+$36.76

Record

53%

7652-6774 (14426)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$901.11

Value

$155.96

PnL

-$745.15

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,978.15

Value

$122.96

PnL

-$480.45

Record

52%

1169-1072 (2241)

MenacingTurtle<$100

Invested

$35.73

Value

$34.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

255-199 (454)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$261.64

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$2.19

Record

40%

2684-4012 (6696)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.32

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$6.9

Record

74%

12150-4330 (16480)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$7.68

Record

41%

1407-2028 (3435)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.05

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$8.27

Record

43%

470-622 (1092)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4868h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.