Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 28¢ · $775 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$775.43

Combined PnL

-$49.25

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 28.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$534.66

Total Shares2,138

Combined PnL-$48.72

No4 traders

Total Value$240.78

Total Shares319

Combined PnL-$0.53

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

577h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$556.53	$454.5	-$102.03	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
Haradwaith	Noavg 75.9¢	$135.9	$123.71	-$0.26	40% 6508-9755 (16263)
GO god83743894	Noavg 76.6¢	$103.35	$101.93	-$1.42	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$10.02	$62.82	+$52.8	79% 3303-891 (4194)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$13.5	$14.25	+$0.75	63% 777-466 (1243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$8.89	$7.59	+$0	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.4	$7.55	+$1.15	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.13	$1.86	-$0.27	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.2	$1.23	+$0.03	64% 1050-593 (1643)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$556.53

Value

$454.5

PnL

-$102.03

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

Haradwaith

Invested

$135.9

Value

$123.71

PnL

-$0.26

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

god83743894

Invested

$103.35

Value

$101.93

PnL

-$1.42

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.02

Value

$62.82

PnL

+$52.8

Record

79%

3303-891 (4194)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

63%

777-466 (1243)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$1.15

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.27

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

577h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.