Will BLG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$73.34
67.3¢ → 62.7¢
-7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxx | Noavg 72.9¢ | $479.12 | $385.53 | -$65.73 | — 2-1 (3) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 63.9¢ | $178.88 | $175.7 | -$3.18 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $119.29 | $117.85 | -$1.44 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $110.82 | $109.18 | -$1.64 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $65.88 | $86.12 | +$20.24 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66¢ | $50.54 | $48.03 | -$2.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15¢ | $15.34 | $38.09 | +$22.75 | |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $63.4 | $62.75 | -$0.65 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $53.03 | $52.56 | -$0.47 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $50.58 | $50.2 | -$0.38 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $10.9 | $6.78 | +$0.15 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
Invested
$479.12
Value
$385.53
PnL
-$65.73
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$178.88
Value
$175.7
PnL
-$3.18
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$119.29
Value
$117.85
PnL
-$1.44
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$110.82
Value
$109.18
PnL
-$1.64
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$65.88
Value
$86.12
PnL
+$20.24
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.4
Value
$62.75
PnL
-$0.65
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$53.03
Value
$52.56
PnL
-$0.47
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
balthazar<$100Invested
$50.58
Value
$50.2
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.