Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $31K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$31.1K

Combined PnL

$11.0K

Smart Money Entry

5.1¢ → 7.5¢

+47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$31.1K

Total Shares443,714

Combined PnL+$11.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$14.2K	$22.0K	+$7.9K	47% 217-240 (457)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$4.1K	$5.5K	+$1.7K	47% 100-113 (213)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$978.69	$1.5K	+$543.71	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$600	$1.1K	+$525	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$409	$535.5	+$164.92	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
probabilityCTR	Yes	$183.13	$183.13	+$127.34	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$3.47	$151.96	+$100.43	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
VE veliMaxCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$28.38	$33.11	+$7.1	61% 46-29 (75)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$20.97	$4.45	+$0.23	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,172.23

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

DolphinBallerCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,064.28

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$978.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$543.71

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$525

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$409

Value

$535.5

PnL

+$164.92

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.13

Value

$183.13

PnL

+$127.34

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$151.96

PnL

+$100.43

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

veliMaxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.38

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$7.1

Record

61%

46-29 (75)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.97

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.23

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.