Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 25¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$663.98

Smart Money Entry

19¢ → 24.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares12,012

Combined PnL+$669.51

No2 traders

Total Value$251.57

Total Shares337

Combined PnL-$5.53

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4628h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$447.41	70% 168-72 (240)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$207.68	$415.35	+$199.69	52% 5946-5556 (11502)
Haradwaith	Noavg 80.1¢	$82	$245.75	-$6.64	42% 5338-7268 (12606)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$98.61	$117.42	+$12.03	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$116	$113.55	-$2.44	56% 270-211 (481)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$98.33	$104	+$0	55% 3125-2513 (5638)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$13.5	$26	+$12.5	51% 2385-2316 (4701)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77¢	$7.28	$5.82	+$1.11	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.93	$1.27	+$0.32	41% 1484-2112 (3596)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,755.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$447.41

Record

70%

168-72 (240)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$207.68

Value

$415.35

PnL

+$199.69

Record

52%

5946-5556 (11502)

Haradwaith

Invested

$82

Value

$245.75

PnL

-$6.64

Record

42%

5338-7268 (12606)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$98.61

Value

$117.42

PnL

+$12.03

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$113.55

PnL

-$2.44

Record

56%

270-211 (481)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$98.33

Value

$104

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3125-2513 (5638)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$26

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

2385-2316 (4701)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.32

Record

41%

1484-2112 (3596)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4628h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.