Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 62¢ · $517 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$517.09

Combined PnL

$197.48

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 62¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$235.11

Total Shares365

Combined PnL-$107.17

Yes6 traders

Total Value$281.99

Total Shares732

Combined PnL+$304.65

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.4¢	$460.4	$152.06	-$95.86	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$77.17	$148.54	+$71.38	52% 5909-5513 (11422)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$68.27	$104.83	+$36.56	45% 13352-16261 (29613)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$66.72	$48.75	-$8.34	49% 8165-8412 (16577)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 62¢	$18.63	$18.48	-$0.15	39% 3003-4777 (7780)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.52	$12.73	-$2.79	66% 918-479 (1397)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$420.71	$9.02	+$142.91	74% 12148-4326 (16474)
MD mde4life1986CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$8.52	$8.87	+$0.35	47% 161-178 (339)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$95.23	$8.1	+$50.98	72% 12558-4969 (17527)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.11	$3.08	-$0.03	36% 1961-3488 (5449)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.15	$2.62	+$2.48	43% 3029-3982 (7011)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$460.4

Value

$152.06

PnL

-$95.86

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.17

Value

$148.54

PnL

+$71.38

Record

52%

5909-5513 (11422)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$68.27

Value

$104.83

PnL

+$36.56

Record

45%

13352-16261 (29613)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$66.72

Value

$48.75

PnL

-$8.34

Record

49%

8165-8412 (16577)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.15

Record

39%

3003-4777 (7780)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$15.52

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$2.79

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$420.71

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$142.91

Record

74%

12148-4326 (16474)

mde4life1986CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.52

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

161-178 (339)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.23

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$50.98

Record

72%

12558-4969 (17527)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

1961-3488 (5449)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$2.48

Record

43%

3029-3982 (7011)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.