Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$50.0K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 1.1¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$35.1K

Total Shares3,056,490

Combined PnL+$4.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares15,000

Combined PnL+$22.5

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AviatorulCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$13.1K	$34.6K	+$7.1K	— 0-5 (5)
11 11122	Noavg 99.1¢	$14.8K	$14.8K	+$22.5	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$52.7K	$294.86	$-3.0K	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$80.3	$80.3	+$25.75	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$48.59	$71.64	+$22.97	47% 85-95 (180)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$38.31	+$38.31	26% 351-985 (1336)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$786.26	$18.53	+$3.22	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$11.5	+$11.5	41% 648-925 (1573)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$1.03	+$1.03	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

AviatorulCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,089.69

Value

$34.6K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

—

0-5 (5)

11122

Invested

$14,805

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$22.5

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$52,723.77

Value

$294.86

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.3

Value

$80.3

PnL

+$25.75

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.59

Value

$71.64

PnL

+$22.97

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$38.31

PnL

+$38.31

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$786.26

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$3.22

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,064.06

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$1.03

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4375.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

4476.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.