Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 96.1¢

+40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares16,250

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

1724h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 75.3¢	$3.8K	$4.8K	+$1.0K	63% 353-204 (557)
MA MaxEnt	Yesavg 89¢	$111.76	$3.4K	+$756.37	32% 129-275 (404)
DO donthackme	Yesavg 10¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$2.9K	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
Qualitative	Yesavg 71¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$514.05	58% 1181-843 (2024)
bigshort	Yesavg 69.3¢	$994.95	$1.4K	+$355.18	83% 357-71 (428)
BO borntoolate.eth	Yesavg 72.3¢	$604.51	$803.68	+$199.17	75% 315-103 (418)
XieGuangKun	Yesavg 75.9¢	$515	$651.12	+$136.13	51% 367-349 (716)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 85.5¢	$430.29	$442.76	+$44.73	77% 11691-3586 (15277)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$22.43	$55.87	+$12.7	45% 4134-5011 (9145)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$3,766.76

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

MaxEnt

Yes

Invested

$111.76

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$756.37

Record

32%

129-275 (404)

donthackme

Yes

Invested

$1,616.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

Qualitative

Yes

Invested

$1,456

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$514.05

Record

58%

1181-843 (2024)

bigshort

Yes

Invested

$994.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$355.18

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

borntoolate.eth

Yes

Invested

$604.51

Value

$803.68

PnL

+$199.17

Record

75%

315-103 (418)

XieGuangKun

Yes

Invested

$515

Value

$651.12

PnL

+$136.13

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$430.29

Value

$442.76

PnL

+$44.73

Record

77%

11691-3586 (15277)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.43

Value

$55.87

PnL

+$12.7

Record

45%

4134-5011 (9145)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

1724h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.