Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 56% (429–335, n=764) · hand-picked wallet · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$33.9K
Record
429W / 335L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 764 settled
Batting Avg
50.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1391
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
36,748
Markets
1,855
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 32 on the consensus side (97%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.5K · now 95¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No $2.5K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $247 · now 16¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (82% of 33)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $238 · now 16¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $228 · now 15¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $75 · now 5¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
Specialties
1,126 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 55¢- MLB
+13 pts
side won 65% of 51 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +17%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 61% of 335 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +10%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 63% of 98 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 63% of 106 at an average 66¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 10% of 262)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 40% of 186)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 66% of 239)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 90% of 439)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.