Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Democrats win 11 or more House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 1.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$436.85

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 1.1¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,511

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$7.8

Total Shares743

Combined PnL-$567.62

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

369h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 37.4¢	$121.94	$515.45	+$253.4	45% 2965-3664 (6629)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 14.7¢	$60.45	$406.68	+$346.23	65% 284-150 (434)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 40.1¢	$119.46	$294.97	+$177.96	55% 342-284 (626)
RA RadioCCOD<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$11.79	$99.23	+$87.68	32% 81-170 (251)
AU auros2<$100	Yes	$90.37	$90.37	+$67.99	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$16.08	$82.13	+$66.05	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.3	$6.45	+$5.15	77% 12686-3871 (16557)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 84.1¢	$381.94	$4.81	-$377.13	53% 790-695 (1485)
thanksforplayinCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$145.21	$2.04	-$141.56	56% 696-551 (1247)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$49.87	$0.95	-$48.92	65% 611-332 (943)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$121.94

Value

$515.45

PnL

+$253.4

Record

45%

2965-3664 (6629)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$60.45

Value

$406.68

PnL

+$346.23

Record

65%

284-150 (434)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$119.46

Value

$294.97

PnL

+$177.96

Record

55%

342-284 (626)

RadioCCOD<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.79

Value

$99.23

PnL

+$87.68

Record

32%

81-170 (251)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.37

Value

$90.37

PnL

+$67.99

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.08

Value

$82.13

PnL

+$66.05

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$5.15

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$381.94

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$377.13

Record

53%

790-695 (1485)

thanksforplayinCTR

Invested

$145.21

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$141.56

Record

56%

696-551 (1247)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$49.87

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$48.92

Record

65%

611-332 (943)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

369h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4594.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

4694.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.