Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 55% (307–250, n=557) · was PM monthly #609 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.3K
Record
307W / 250L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 557 settled
Batting Avg
53.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1012
Source
PM monthly #609
Record (90 d)
254/502 · 51%
Trades
2,729
Markets
757
Volume
$289.1K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 23 on the consensus side (57%)- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $4.9K · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (75% of 28)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $1.3K · now 85¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $588 · now 95¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $529 · now 85¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (61% of 147)
- Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $402 · now 52¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (38% of 10)
- Will Democrats win 11 or more House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $298 · now 98¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes $286 · now 97¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (51% of 57)
- Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?Yes $276 · now 97¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (41% of 29)
Specialties
488 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 48¢- Tech
+12 pts
side won 64% of 91 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +9%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 63% of 32 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +3%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 39% of 46 · avg entry 36¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 48% of 86 at an average 48¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 14% of 184)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 50% of 74)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 59% of 79)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 91% of 151)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.