Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on November 30?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $271 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$271.41
$0.24
85.1¢ → 89.5¢
+5% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
37 0x3764...c5eb<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $73.55 | $75.23 | +$1.67 | — |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $66.39 | $67.19 | +$0.8 | — 8-9 (17) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $36 | $33.6 | -$2.4 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $27.8 | $28.56 | +$0.76 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $25.2 | -$0.6 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $16.8 | -$0.2 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.17 | $7.89 | -$0.28 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.49 | $7.23 | -$0.26 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.8 | $5.04 | +$0.24 | 91% 30-3 (33) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $4.17 | $4.67 | +$0.5 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
Invested
$73.55
Value
$75.23
PnL
+$1.67
Record
—
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$66.39
Value
$67.19
PnL
+$0.8
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$36
Value
$33.6
PnL
-$2.4
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$27.8
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$0.76
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$17
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$7.89
PnL
-$0.28
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.49
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$0.24
Record
91%
30-3 (33)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$0.5
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.