Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 82¢ · $17K held · ends Dec 1

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 81.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares16,841

Combined PnL-$359.01

No5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares17,409

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

251h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Yesavg 86.7¢	$6.9K	$6.4K	-$533.05	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 70.3¢	$4.6K	$4.9K	+$660.57	66% 95-49 (144)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 76.9¢	$3.1K	$1.6K	-$479.91	50% 89-89 (178)
ZE zerosmartCTR	Noavg 21.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$176.84	—
LO lovedudleyCTR	Noavg 9¢	$450	$950	+$500	— 2-9 (11)
CA Carry99CTR	Noavg 27.8¢	$948.34	$648.03	-$300.31	—
10 10Alexander321CTR	Noavg 25.9¢	$482.43	$354.1	-$128.33	— 0-4 (4)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 75.3¢	$463.9	$311	-$17.37	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
AU auros2	Yesavg 77.7¢	$156.57	$152.71	+$5.09	73% 70-26 (96)
EA Eager47259<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$85.88	$90.4	+$4.52	48% 94-100 (194)
GE getbippedCTR	Noavg 28.6¢	$9.5K	$11.73	$-3.1K	47% 15-17 (32)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 75.9¢	$226.93	$10.23	+$1.29	47% 753-850 (1603)
fyrsken<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$4.15	$4	-$0.15	46% 21-25 (46)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Yes

Invested

$6,929.02

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$533.05

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$4,570.3

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$660.57

Record

66%

95-49 (144)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$3,072.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$479.91

Record

50%

89-89 (178)

zerosmartCTR

Invested

$1,520.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$176.84

Record

—

lovedudleyCTR

Invested

$450

Value

$950

PnL

+$500

Record

—

2-9 (11)

Carry99CTR

Invested

$948.34

Value

$648.03

PnL

-$300.31

Record

—

10Alexander321CTR

Invested

$482.43

Value

$354.1

PnL

-$128.33

Record

—

0-4 (4)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$463.9

Value

$311

PnL

-$17.37

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

auros2

Yes

Invested

$156.57

Value

$152.71

PnL

+$5.09

Record

73%

70-26 (96)

Eager47259<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.88

Value

$90.4

PnL

+$4.52

Record

48%

94-100 (194)

getbippedCTR

Invested

$9,460.73

Value

$11.73

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

47%

15-17 (32)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$226.93

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$1.29

Record

47%

753-850 (1603)

fyrsken<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

21-25 (46)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

251h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.